Another Night For History

Hillary Clinton did something tonight that once seemed impossible: a woman has won a Presidential primary.

Think about that.

While there are still plenty of men - and women - who are not comfortable with the idea of a woman being President, there are clearly enough who are. In New Hampshire tonight we didn't see anything impossible happen - after all, Hillary has been considered a front-runner throughout the campaign - but it is something that hadn't been seen before.

I saw Hillary on saturday, as I decided to drive up from Boston to see her and then John McCain later in the day. I have to say, I was impressed by her performance, as she scrapped her stump speech and went with a pure question-and-answer session that went over tremendously well and probably represents a sea change for her strategy. The Hillary I saw was warm, humorous, friendly and appealing. She seemed comfortable in the open forum, and the audience appreciated her reactions and answers; I think she found her form and kept running with it over the rest of the pre-primary campaign, which probably explains where tonight's victory came from.

Once again I have to say I liked Obama's speech. Even in a loss, he came across well and his message was clear and very well focused. I enjoy hearing what he has to say, because he uses rhetoric we haven't heard since the Kennedy days. Bill Clinton is a great speaker, but he's his own style. Obama reminds me of King and RFK, which I find greatly compelling. A fine performance for him in defeat, thin a defeat as it was.

McCain's victory speech was not as impressive, though I think mostly because he clearly needs sleep. He wasn't smooth as Huckabee or Romney were in their losing speeches, but he got himself a nice big victory and maybe didn't need to be as smooth. He's always been about honesty and being real, and for someone as sleep deprived as he is right now, I saw what I expected.

But it is clear that the democrats are leading the way here so far, in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Now we go to Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan, which will probably be the most important primaries those states have ever had. It's funny how in the year where all these states shoved their primaries up - and got penalized for it - this campaign will probably be close enough that their original primary dates would have left them just as important anyway.

Hillary made another important change, by the way. Notice that her victory speech was all about her on the podium; Bill and Chelsea came up for a cursory kiss and hug and then disappeared into the audience. Like Obama, she set up the stage to be about her, unlike in Iowa when she was surrounded by Bill, Chelsea, Madeline Albright, Wes Clark, and tons of staffers, which was the old-school way of holding a primary speech. Not tonight.

Finally, The Time Has Come

Finally, the time has come.

It is over; the dark ages of America are coming to an end, and I see the light at the end of the tunnel.

It started to come in 2006, but it is now quite clear:

A new dawn is upon us.

The people who put us in Iraq, who bankrupted our treasury, who ruined our international reputation, who put their own beliefs over the Constitution - they are to be vanquished.

They are now powerless.

The Senate has done its part by calling sessions for a nominal time in order to prevent Bush from making his beloved recess appointments. They have rendered him impotent, and will undoubtedly continue to do so.

He is now powerless.

The party is over for the neocons. It is over for the sycophants of Dick Cheney. It is over for the CEOs of Halliburton. It is over.

It may be a little early to get excited - after all, this was only the Iowa caucuses - but the writing is on the wall.

It's not that the Democrats are sure to win; much as I think that will be the case, that's not why I'm so excited. I'm excited because clearly, the attitude of people has changed. Mitt Romney, the negative campaigner, the I'm-so-religious campaigner, was soundly beaten today. Mike Huckabee is a religious man, of course, but he's not a negative campaigner - and as such, striked me as more sincere than Romney or the current regime. McCain is not a negative campaigner either; I've been seeing his New Hampshire ads here in Boston, and they're all postitive messages.

Barack Obama gave a wonderful victory speech in Iowa tonight. Not only did the Democrats see an 89% increase in turnout over 2004, but they selected a man without regard for his race or age, something America has said it could do for years but never did. Why? Because he may very well be the best candidate for president.

It's no secret that I like John McCain very much. But Barack Obama may give me reason to think again about my vote in November. It's a long way away, and there's much to think about.

But there is no doubt in my mind that the tide is turning, and whether the democrats or republicans win the presidency in November, it will be a shift away from the neocon paranoia of Bush and his ilk - with which I include that dink Romney. And that's what I've been waiting to see for a long, long time.

The Best Game Ever?

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State 43, Oklahoma 42 (OT)

This may have been the greatest football game of all time, if it were for the national championship. And the only reason it wasn't for the national championship is because the BCS is a flawed system that wouldn't let Boise State face Ohio State for the championship. So what did Boise State do? They showed that they could play as well as any of the BCS teams, and beat one of the traditional powerhouses.

If you weren't watching, here's what happened. Boise State led for almost the entire game; with only a few minutes remaining, they were up 28-20. Oklahoma had no time outs, but got the ball late via a punt. They marched right down the field, and with a little more than a minute remianing scored a touchdown. Going for two, they had two tries invalidated by penalties (one to each team) before finally getting it on the third, to tie the score at 28.

On the first play after the kickoff, Boise State QB Jared Zabransky threw an interception to an Oklahoma CB who returned it all the way for a TD, giving Oklahoma the lead, 35-28, with one minute to go. Oklahoma's fans were going berzerk, with the BSU people collapsed in disbelief. So what happens? Zabransky marches his team down the field to the 25 yard line with 14 seconds to go, when on 4th down and 18 they throw a hook-and-ladder that gets executed perfectly, scoring a TD with 7 seconds remaining to send the game to OT.

Oklahoma gets the ball first in OT, and RB Adrian Petersen (who is going to be in the NFL next year, along with Zabransky) runs all 25 yards for a TD on the first play in OT. Boise state takes over and stumbles and sputters to a couple of first downs before finally scoring a TD from the 4 yard line on a TD pass from a tailback! That made it Oklahoma 35-34 with the PAT to go.

Boise State decides to roll the dice all the way and go for two; had they gone for one, of course, we would have gone to a second OT. Oklahoma calls time out to make BSU think about it, but clearly the play was called: Zabransky takes the ball and fakes a throw while giving the statue of liberty play to RB Ian Johnson, who had been up and down all day but ran virtually unopposed to the end zone for the two pointer, giving Boise State the win.

Amazing. This was awesome. It's what college football is all about. And it's why the BCS is crap, and it's time for a national playoff system in Division One. No more excuses; Boise State went 13-0, and by beating Oklahoma they proved that they could be in the national title game against Ohio State just as well as Florida could.

If you didn't see the game, watch Sports Center tomorrow morning for highlights, or see it on ESPN Classic. This was one of the greatest ever.

The Truth About Global Warming

I'm no expert in this field, but I think it's clear that a number of people who ARE experts have been quite vocal lately about global warming, that our species is making it happen, and that the results are obvious. Ice shelves breaking free of the Canadian arctic, glaciers melting on Mt. Kilimanjiro, ozone holes....wherever you go, you see stories of global warming, and the finger pointing to human industrial practices as the reason.

I'm not arguing against any of these experts; I imagine they're correct that we've been doing this. Where I argue is where they think that the Earth will become Venus-like, and kill off all life on the planet. That I don't see - although it wouldn't surprise me to see humans end up extincting themselves eventually.

Life on Earth has existed for most of the planet's history, although it's only in the last 650 million years - 14% of the planet's existence - that higher forms of life have thrived. The age of mammals has only lasted for the last 65 million years, which is less than 2% of the Earth's overall age. What does that mean?

Well, it means that humans may very well pollute themselves out of existence, or perhaps find some other stupid way to wipe themselves out, and the Earth will continue to produce life. We may be gone in another million years, and that would still be less than 2% of the time the dinosaurs dominated the planet. Like the dinosaurs and the trilobites, there will come a day when humans are but a fossilized remnant of a bygone era.

The planet has been warm before; in the Jurassic era, polar ice was unknown. During the reign of the dinosaurs, the global climate was much warmer and more humid than today. Global warming by humans will accelerate a return to such a climate, but eventually the Earth will work the pollutants out of its system and the air will be clean and the water pristine again; but we will be long gone, whether it be due to a self-inflicted or natural catastrophe.

Periodic ice ages in the Earth's history may be due to the passing of the solar system through galactic spiral arms, or there may be some long-period variability in the sun's output that we haven't figured out yet. That means that it's not a good idea to mess with the natural climate, since we don't know what the mechanisms are that would be required to fix such artificial changes. For that reason, I worry that our influence on global climate may cause irreversible damage that could result in the extinction of our species. But I don't think it would result in the overall loss of life on Earth. And the Earth will recover without us.

30 million years from now, humanity will probably not exist. That's .6% of the Earth's lifetime so far. A new intelligent life form will spring up, and they'll probably find a lot of our remnants: in addition to the bones they'll find in our cemetaries - caskets and so forth long dissolved, but bones fossilized - there will probably be remains of some of our concrete and metallic structures. They'll find traces of long-lived pollutants in soil samples. And they'll wonder what it is that caused our species to disappear, after advancing as far as it did. Perhaps they'll find a time capsule with our language preserved and linguists will be able to access the recorded history of our species, and they'll learn what not to do to themselves.

And the global warming? The Earth's climate will no doubt have corrected itself by then. A runaway greenhouse effect would take a lot more than what we can do to the planet; how Venus got that way is a mystery, but no doubt its closer proximity to the sun caused it to heat up far more than the Earth could on its own, even with the boost we're giving it. Humanity would kill itself off at a global temperature around 125F, either due to heat exhaustion or ultraviolet poisoning due to ozone depletion.

But eventually, the ozone would replenish itself, and with us gone, pollution would stop entering the atmosphere, and a new peiodic ice age would cool the planet back to reasonable temperatures - and with no humans to screw up the cycle again, the planet would be back to normal. That could all happen in less than a million years, a long time on a human scale, but very short on a geologic time scale.

So why worry about global warming? Every species we've extincted by ourselves will eventually be replaced by another one once we're gone, which shouldn't be too long from now in the context of Earth time. It's our time on the planet, and once we're gone the rest of the planet will get back to its normal business. Let's be clear: global warming will only shorten the amount of time the humans walk the planet. For THAT reason we should be more careful. But don't think that the rest of the species on Earth wouldn't be more than happy to see us go sooner rather than later.

Gerald R. Ford, 1913-2006

He may not have been the most dynamic man ever to sit in the White House; indeed, his presence in the White House was regarded by some as a distinct error in the Constitution (or, specifically, the XXV amendment) since he was never directly elected by the nation, and when he did come up for election, he lost.

But he may every well have been the right man at the right time. Upon Richard Nixon's resignation in 1974 as a result of the Watergate scandal, Ford took over with a completely different approach and outlook on the Presidency. Where Nixon was combative, Ford was amiable; where Nixon was secrecy, Ford was openness. There were no great accomplishments in his 2 1/2 years as president, but indeed the long national nightmare was over.

Ford was a golfer. He was a football player. And yet, he was parodied mercilessly by Chevy Chase and others for being clumsy. But he always seemed to take it in stride, and he ended his life as the longest-living president of all time, surpassing Ronald Reagan by a few months - but all the while in far better mental condition than Reagan, who was tragically struck with Alzheimer's disease 10 years before his death. Ford was in and out of the hospital a lot this year, but until the last couple of years you only heard of him on the golf course.

I liked Ford; despite the lack of accomplishment, he stepped into the Oval Office as the good guy the country needed. And as we saw with Jimmy Carter, just being a good guy isn't enough to keep the country moving. Ford may not have been any great dynamo, but he kept the country moving along and healing at a time he was needed most. For that we should always be grateful.

Super-bold predictions

Here are some things I see happening in the near future. Some of them are outrageous, some of them are unexpected but could happen, and some are logical predictions but aren't going to come true. They span many categories. Hold on.

1. San Diego goes to the Super Bowl. Not surprising, given that they have the best offense in the NFL. But there are other teams that on a good day can beat them.

2. Mahmoud Ahmadenijad is assassinated. By whom? I don't know. But I get this feeling that he's pissed some people off. And I don't mean the CIA; I mean someone in the Iran ruling body.

3. Sarah Palin gets the VP nomination of the Republicans in 2008. Why not? She's pretty, smart, and governor (albeit a new one) of a western state. Look her up online; she's the new governor of Alaska. I'd vote for a McCain/Palin ticket. And I'm a democrat!

4. The economy continues to suck. It's not really a prediction, it's really a statement of fact.

5. Hugo Chavez is assassinated. This time the CIA may well be to blame.

5. Muqtada al-Sadr comes to the White House. And there he lays out the plans to end the war in Iraq. And he turns out to be right.

6. Bill Clinton is brought back into the Palestine-Israel peace process. I make no prediction of its efficacy.

7. Australia wins the Ashes. But that's not much of a prediction, given how poorly England have played in the first two Tests. When the hell is Monty Panesar going to come into the attack????

8. Canada calls an election by April.

9. Mexico continues to be a mess.

10. Castro is dead by the end of January. He's not well. The problem is, who will take over once he's gone? I see a major issue fomenting in Cuba, and we have no power to do anythign about it because of our unwillingness to lift the embargo and remain beholden to Miami's exiled Cuban community. I know they have a good reason, but I think this has gone too far.

Farewell to Vicente Fox

Today is Mexico's Inauguration Day, and Felipe Calderon will take over the presidency from Vicente Fox. And while the supporters of election loser Manuel Lopez Obrador continue to insist that their man won, no other country has seen reason to argue the election results (with the possible exception of Venezuela, who in any case is too busy worrying about rigging their own election this sunday).

I really liked Vicente Fox when he came to power in 2000. He was the first candidate from an opposition party to win the presidential election in forever, and he had great ideas for reforms. Newly-elected president Bush took care to make Fox was one of his first state guests once he reached the White House, and I'm sure Calderon will be in Washington soon enough. Bush and Fox agreed in principle on a great many practical reforms and an agenda of cross-border cooperation that made the future seem quite bright.

Then, of course, September 11 happened, and Bush's attention turned away from Fox. All Bush cared about after that was terrorism, and Fox became a pawn in the president's plan to secure America's borders, even though the Saudis who executed the attacks didn't enter this country from Mexico. Fox was left out in the cold, with a huge list of promises he could no longer deliver.

His own legislature rebelled, upset by the unfulfilled promises, and all the hope for cooperation with the United States and the Bush administration fell away. In Mexico, Fox received blame for just about everything, and perhaps his political skills weren't strong enough to save him - there were plenty of opportunities within Mexico for him to make some more positive changes - but I always wonder how much better off Mexico would have been had Fox been able to hold Bush's attention, which was impossible after the 9/11 attacks.

Now, Fox is done, but his handpicked successor, Felipe Calderon, enters office, with a new agenda with the United States. Immigration reform is back on the table, although the United States seems to be more interested in a unilateral decision. (Note: One of these days I'll get around to writing about the immigration reform proposals out there and what my opinion is.) And with Iraq dominating the Bush administration's attention, Mexico is not likely to get much out of the US until either Iraq is solved or 2009 rolls around.

In any case, I bid farewell to Vicente Fox. He didn't get as much accomplished as he wanted, but the world changed dramatically in his first two years in office. The United States went from great supporter and friend to apathetic neighbor. What if the Mexican financial crisis of the 1990s, in which the Clinton administration took controversial but effective measures to help solve, had happened in 2003? The Bush administration would not have had the energy nor desire to help out, and Mexico could have been plunged into a massive collapse, which would certainly have caused even greater problems with illegal immigration. Fortunately for all of us, Fox held Mexico stable during his tenure, partly the result of the 90s bailout (for which Mexico not only paid its debt to the USA, but paid it early) but also partly due to his handling of the economy since then.

Fox is still relatively young, and it will be interesting to see if he remains in Mexican politics in some capacity. Most former Mexican presidents are never heard from again, but before Fox they were all party hacks from the PRI. It will be interesting to see what, if any, role Fox plays in Mexico's future, if he will be like Oscar Arias (who has actually returned to power in Costa Rica) or Bill Clinton and continue to speak up for causes he believes in, or if he will just fade into the sunset like so many other former Latin American leaders. I hope for the former.